Due to the Pandemic, interest in comic collectibles as alternative investment assets are at an all-time high. The problem is that in order to get a decent return on your cash investment you have to sacrifice the preservation of wealth for the future (Flipping). For the new comers to the hobby It’s one thing to know what comic speculation is – but it’s another to know the best ones to target. So, the natural smart thing is to leverage social media (blogs, videos, podcasts) dedicated to the subject . I reviewed 700 articles , and 300 videos over the last year. When I analyzed the price increases against increase of mentions in social media it was clear who influenced what. Not all of them were malicious. The fact is, that 99% have a bias, that is illogical when bounced against the rest of the collectible world. As a result it has been bias that driven the speculation world and publisher offerings. The latest trend that was promoted is the blanket collection of late edition printings.
After analyzing the secondary market sales against the Social media Content, it was clear which biases were most prominent. Herd Instinct Bias or Bandwagon Effect Bias. This bias is responsible for many bad investment decisions, not to mention market bubbles. Retailer exclusives are leveraging FOMO and Ambiguity Effect Bias: speculators prefer the known probability of something familiar over a second choice where the risk is less well known. Because at certain times some comics tend to be hot, Anchoring Bias: An anchoring bias is when you may over-emphasize how much you paid for a comic book. Law of Small Numbers Bias: This behavioral bias is linked to ‘sample size’. Or the tendency to draw conclusions from small amounts of data randomly collected. Many speculators claim that a book is expensive because it is rare, but after looking at the numbers, many were not even close. For this article I used the Gerber index to analyze rarity: 7 – scarce – 21-50 copies; 6 – uncommon 50-200 copies; 5 – less common than average 200-1000 copies; 4 – average – 1000-2000 copies
The rules:
- Must have had a 9.8 sale in the last year, and multiple transactions at either high grade or low grade.
- Average of transaction must be a $100 or more.
- Must have beat normal inflation (2.48-4.99%) after adjustment for taxes and shipping.
- No retailer exclusives.
Batman: The Killing Joke #1 (14th Printing)
Zack Snyder Reportedly Eyed to Direct Killing Joke Movie with Jared Leto For HBO Max. Brian Bolland cover & art Joker cripples Barbara Gordon (Batgirl). Last sale of a 9.8 in March 2021 for $140.Total CGC Census: 42. There is a 10.0 though. Be careful though the money still stays with the 1st print, which as of May 2021, sold 9.8s for $480.
Bone #1 (9th Printing)
Netflix will develop the Bone, Jeff Smith story as an animated kids series Bone #1 includes the 1st appearance of Fone Bone,Phoney Bone, Smiley Bone,Great Red Dragon & Ted. There are 2, 9.8’s on the census and one sold for $1125. You should save your money and look to the lower grades on the 1st print, a 9.8 went for 12,000 back in November 2020.
Star Wars #1 (7th Printing) November 4, 2015
It is a nice cover but by no means rare at 4,773 Est Units. Yet Secondary sellers insist on labeling it rare. Even more suspicious are some sites reporting sales of 9.8’s at around $300 as late as April 2021. But the Verified research says it no more than $65.
Kamala Khan becomes the new Ms. Marvel, Sara Pichelli cover. 1st appearance of Kamal’s Family. Speculators have been piling a lot of money into Ms. Marvel Keys because of her impending appearance in the MCU. Iman Vellani will star as a Pakistani-American teenager, an Inhuman, and a Captain Marvel superfan. There are 32, 9.8’s on the census and one sold for $415 back in March 2021. This is kind of interesting because 1st print 9.8’s, are $500. My personal preference would be to spend that money on Captain Marvel #14 (1st Kamala Khan Appearance); or Captain Marvel #17 (1st full Kamal Khan); and All-New Marvel Now! Point One #1 (1st Appearance in story as Ms. Marvel).
The clowngrade of the list.. For some reason Marvel Comics, thinks it is okay to put out multiple editions of a comic, with the exact same art. The transaction numbers aren’t that high, for the argument to be made for high demand. In fact this seems to be a pandemic wonder. This went from a $50 book to $200 in a 9.8. A suspicious transaction of a 4TH print $550 sold back in April, but everything has calmed down since then.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #1 (6th Printing)
Apparently, there is a CG film reboot of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles franchise in the works from the all-star team of Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Jeff Rowe and Brendan O’Brien. Buyers were simply priced out of the market for the earlier editions, so the prices make sense. Raw TMNT #1 6TH print went for $330. There is only 2 9.8’s to speak of. What even more interesting is that this was a Free Comic Book day. The Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #1 (3rd Printing) Was already headed to $1k before the pandemic. Really took off after a Heritage auction of $3.3k. Average distro, I cannot quite explain the thinking behind this going so high and staying there.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #1 (5th Printing) July 31, 1988
Kevin Eastman & Peter Laird story, cover & art Wraparound cover. 8 page “Donatello” back-up story by Eric Talbot. Heritage auction that made this take off into $1k territory in 2021. A while ago. There was some obvious price manipulation tactics going on with this one, but the Transactional numbers are undeniable. A total of 215 in the CGC census but there are only 23 that made a 9.8. My bigger Problem is that for the price of some of the 5th prints for you could still find a lower grade 1st print for a 1k more.
A great cover. This Book was already getting the Pandemic Bump, but it looks like there may have been a Heritage auction that made this take off into $1k territory in 2021.
Something is Killing the Children #1 (6th Printing)
1st appearance of Erica Slaughter Out of all the other covers, this may be my least favorite. 64, 9.8’smeans its not rare at all. Yet Secondary sellers insist on labeling it rare. Beware of the BOTS. There is a paper trail of suspicious 1-1 sales trying to push the price to $300. As a result, some sites and speculation podcasters have been reporting sales of 9.8’s at around $180. But the Verified research says none of that is happening.
Something is Killing the Children #1 (5th Printing)
Werther Dell’Edera cover & art. There was one wacky sale on the 17th of May 2021 that should have made people poop their pants…but it did not. 56 Total in the census, and 44, 9.8’ means it is uncommon.
Batman #1 (5th Printing)
This one is another difficult one to pin down. There are 88, 9.8’s in the census meaning it’s not rare at all. I cannot even tell you beware of the bots, because I do not have any transactions to bounce it off of. Average pricing is around $180 but that seems to be the average of a transaction of $200 and bunch of other ones that I cannot verify at this time.
Superman: The Man of Steel #18 (5th Printing)
Doomsday (First full appearance). One potential storyline could involve the New Gods using a Mother Box to resurrect the monster. If Doomsday ends up rebelling against Darkseid, this could result in a sort of adaptation of Hunter/Prey. There are 48, 9.8’s on the census. I gotta call out the price manipulation and one sold for $500 even though there were plenty around for less, back in March 2021. also, the 1st prints only go for $100, and it is the exact same art. The kicker is that the 4th print goes for $200
Edge of Spider-Verse #2 (2-5th Printing)
The 5th print quandary is perhaps my favorite in that, of course any interest in this book makes sense, but I don’t have anything other than implied transactional data to back up its $300, 9.8 price tag. The 1st edition Qualifier could hit 2k any day now. The Greg Land Variant last sold for $6k. The data does indicate a lot of transactions for the 5th print; however, the verified data does not support the pricing. The fact that there are so many raws out there for cheap means something. What makes it interesting is the Edge of Spider-Verse #2 (4th print) which goes for $200 9.8. Even more shocking is that the Edge of Spider-Verse #2 (3rd print) goes for $250 Not bad for a book that’s only less common than average. Same thing for Edge of Spider-Verse #2 (2nd print) I guess I am more jealous that I passed on the 2nd print so many times now that it has hit $500. Even then for my money I would rather take a shot at the lower grade Amazing Spider-man which is Gwen Stacy’s actual 1st appearance.
Saga #1 (5th Printing)
This is my third favorite. Saga Creators have said that, no adaptations are on the horizon for this megahit sci-fi/fantasy tale: Instead, it just continues to be one of the most acclaimed non-superhero comic books in history and a perennial “you may not like comics, but you’ll like this” recommendation. There are 53, 9.8’s on the census. There is a paper trail of suspicious sales that have pushed this book to $99As a result, some sites have been reporting sales of 9.8’s at around $100. I more inclined to trust the numbers for the Saga #1 (3rd Printing) which has some strong transactional numbers. Time will tell if the verified numbers come into back, it up.
Immortal Hulk #2 (Ross Virgin Edition)/ (Lee Variant) (5th Printing)
1st appearance of Doctor Frye. Alex Ross Art. A total of 228 in the CGC census but there are197 that made a 9.8. Ever since the pandemic, this book has hit a consistent $100. The 1st print is holding strong at $250. But the crown jewel remains the Zaffino variant going for $425.
Thor #1 (4th Printing)
1st appearance of Jane Foster as Thor. Both the 3rd and 4th printings fetch around $300. 48 Total in the census, and 34, 9.8’ means it is scarce. Compare it to the 1st edition at consensus of 1.8k. She can’t stay Thor forever so I would look more into getting low grade keys such as the character’s first appearance in Journey into Mystery #84 (September 1962). Even her 1st appearance as Valkyrie War of the Realms Omega #1 (July 2019), might be warranted in the future.
Rick and Morty #1 (4th Printing)
Absolute shocking! I have passed on this book so many times, and now it fetches $170 9.8. This one makes sense because it does have the 1st cover appearance of my Poopy Butthole. Raws are still going for $60. 92 Total in the census, and 56, 9.8’ means it is Less common than average. Pandemic sales made the 1st edition pop to over $1k, so that may have something to do with it.
Darth Vader #3 (4th Printing)
Fan Favorite. 1st Appearance of Aphra. This one is another Pandemic Bump Hit. Before it was maybe a $100, and now its reaching for $1k. at 132 on the consensus its less common that average. The 1st print of course does well at $450.The Darth Vader #3 (3rd Printing) goes for $675. Darth Vader #3 (2nd Printing) goes for $300 9.8. The money is on the Larocca Variant which has been consistently a $2k book 9.8 in 2021.
DC Universe: Rebirth #1 (4th Printing)
1st cover with the 3 Jokers! At 80 books total on the consensus makes it uncommon. This was a hot flip from October to November of 2020. In March 2020 it consistently pulled $250 for a 9.8. Now you cannot even find a decent raw on the secondary market.
Venom V2 #1 2011 (2nd 3rd, 4th Printing)
Another clowngrade on the list. Every single one of the late prints puts it at less common than average, or uncommon according to the CGC Census. 1st appearance of a Jack O’Lantern whose primary identity was never identified. , an unknown serial killer. 62 on the Consensus, less common than average. It fetches over $400 on average. For my money I would rather go with the earliest iteration of theJack O’Lantern, because that is the 1st appearance of the gu who is the current Hobgoblin Jason Macendale (Machine Man Vol 1 19), Raw copies can be had for dirt cheap right now.
Superman #75 (2nd and 4th Printing)
Death of Superman and Doomsday 1st. 6 million issues sold. Less common than average. 4th Raws are dirt cheap but 9.8 fetches over $300 on average. 2nd print are more modest at $100 but still eye popping. Both most definitely got the Pandemic Bump.
Venom #3 (3rd printing, la Mole Variant)
1st full appearance of Knull. Spider-Man (Miles Morales) appearance. Ryan Stegman Cover. 300 on the CGC consensus this is less common than average. But I do not think it warrants even the $200 price tag. Especially a character that is no longer in the picture. The Venom #3 (3rd Printing) goes for over $400 at 9.8. I have nothing against the numbers, just remember his first cameo was in Thor: God of Thunder #6 and goes for $400 as well. Another one that is slept on is the La Mole Foil variant which fetches around $325 for a 9.8 and that was limited to 1,000.
Thanos #15 (Trade Dress/ Virgin Edition) (4th Printing)
Cosmic Ghost Rider revealed to be Frank Castle. But there are two of these and the consensus numbers are identical. Less common than average with 300 in the consensus. The trade dress goes for $160 and for the Retailer exclusive, it averages about $260. I wish that were the end of the story, but it regained some notoriety because of the cover and the correlation to the King I n Black Storyline, and a bit of irresponsible journalism. That incorrectly linked this to the God of Light.
Aliens #1 (4th Printing)
1st appearance of “”Aliens”” in comics. The first truly rare on this list and 7, 9.8 make them very rare. The $400 that they command is nothing to sneeze at. I would rather have a low grade 1st print whatever. Especially now that the license belongs to Disney. 9.8’s got an immediate Pandemic Bounce, and now fetch $2.5 k
Spider-Gwen #1 (2nd and 3rd Printing)
Premiere issue of the first Spider-Gwen titled series. The 3rd print is another Pandemic Hit. Before it was maybe a $50, and now its reaching for $400. 58 books on the consensus make it Uncommon. The2nd print jumped to $500 even though it is just a uncommon book. 1st print does not do so well because of its 2k books at $85. The winner of the variants from this issue was the Adam Hughes Variant, which commands $625 for a 9.8.
Deadpool Merc with a Mouth Vol 1 7 Variant 3rd Print
Cover by Rob Liefeld. Lady Deadpool (First appearance); The Deadpool Kid (First appearance) (Apparent death). According to the census copies are scarce. 9.8’s goes for $925. Right now, raw goes for $250.
Batman: The Dark Knight Returns #1 (3rd Printing)
This series takes place in an alternate continuity as Earth-31. This reality has been allocated It shares continuity with Frank Miller’s All-Star Batman and Robin. The numbers are sparse, but solid, and spread out amongst different platforms. Technically according to the census this is just uncommon (160), but actual online availability is sparse. A mix of transactions spread out among reputable sites make me feel confident in this book. As always, the prize is the 1st print which has commanded $3k.
Batman: The Dark Knight Returns #2 (3rd Printing)
Carrie Kelly becomes Robin. Zack Snyder had plans to set up Carrie Kelley to become Robin for Ben Affleck’s Batman. Other than that, much of nada. This is more of a Pandemic Bump. Don’t skip past the fact that the 1st edition commands $250. Unfortunately, the sales have been watered down by the foil variant.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #2 (3rd Printing)
This one is a goodie and straight forward. First appearance of April O’Neil & the Mousers. To top it off the third print is the only one with April on the Cover. Less common than average. There was a Heritage auction in early May 2021 that pulled in $720 for a 9.8. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #2 (2nd Printing) is less common than average but still averages $800.
Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi Force Storm#0 (3rd Printing)
1st appearance of Tho Yor,Xesh and Trill. I was drawn more to the cover, because The Third printing has the Tho Yor ship. As a result of the Pandemic Star Wars Keys started going up as well. Even though the census calls this scarce. The appearance of the Thor Yor is important because it gives hints as to where the Force Wielders may come from.
Star Wars: Legacy #1 (2 and 3rd Printing)
Adam Hughes cover. 1st full appearance of Darth Krayt, formerly A’Sharad Hett as revealed in Star Wars Legacy #15;1st app of Darth Nihl; also, 1st appearance of Darth Maladi; 1st full appearance of Cade Skywalker and Shado Vao;1st appearance of Wolf Sazen, 1st appearance of Moff Morlish Veed. Both the 3rd and the 2nd are scarce. The fact that the 3rd print fetches $400 more than the 2nd print is utter nonsense. The 2nd is more uncommon, and they both have the same art.
The Walking Dead #1 (Wizard World Portland Edition 2nd Printing) February 28, 2013
Michael Golden cover Reprints. This was pricey way before the Pandemic, and its 9.8 numbers make it scarce. No doubt fans who were prices out of the 1st edition turned to this one instead.
Miles Morales: Spider-Man #13 (2nd Printing)
1st appearance of Billie Morales, sister of Miles. Bottom line upfront, this is the only variant that has Billie on the cover. Its not quite rare, just uncommon. But the transaction numbers are quite high. Years later we shall see if this rises further but for now fans turned to the superior art of MILES MORALES SPIDER-MAN #13 RAHZZAH 2020 VAR, throwing down 210 a pop.
Amazing Spider-Man #101 (2nd Printing)
The movie, which was originally scheduled for March 19, 2021, but then pushed back to October 8. So as that happens the beat continues to build. A mix of different auction platforms are responsible for the average $200 price tag. No doubt the preferred choice of those who were priced out of the 1st edition $14,500).
Silk #1 (2nd Printing)
First solo titled series featuring Silk. Sony has big plans for Cindy Moon, and we should be seeing her soon, I will admit that this is one of her better covers, but that is where it ends for me. Cindy Moon speaks in Amazing SPIDER-MAN#1 (2014), Her origin is laid out, yet collectors consider her 1st Full appearance to be Amazing SPIDER-MAN#4 (2014).
Ultimate Fallout #4 (2nd Printing)
1st full appearance of Miles Morales. Nothing to overthink here. The 2nd print Bagley goes for $375, and the 2nd print Pichelli goes for $600 in respect of the 1st edition at $2,500. With those type of returns it will be tough to turn down buying any cheap raws one they turn up.
Amazing Spider-Man #654 (2nd Printing)
1st appearance of Flash Thompson as Venom. Flash Thompson bonds with the Venom symbiote. Variant second printing cover art by Paulo Siqueira. This is another good one. The cover art for the newsstand does not really hint at the story at all. A mix of Sony news has made this a possible $1k book.
Sandman #75 (2nd Printing)
Netflix’s The Sandman still has no release date. We should expect it sometime in 2022. Last one sold was a 9.6, that sold in April 2021. There is not a lot of transactional data on this one, but the urban legend has been around for a while. Supposedly 2nd prints of Sandman #75 are not supposed to exist. It was never supposed to get a 2nd print run, and most were recalled by the distributor. The continued fervor on this book is still unexplained other the fact that it was hot book back in 2017, when speculator figured out that there were only 5 on the census, and the highest grade was a 9.4. Currently in the census there are 42 books total, 3 of them are 9.8, which makes it scarce but hardly rare enough to go bonkers over this book. Instead, I would rather spend my money buying up lower grade Sandman #1, (Dream’s first appearance), or Weird Mystery Tales#1
In Conclusion:
Some of the assets listed here are Relevant due to the difference in cover art. In others instances it makes sense because the market price locked buyers out of the 1st edition. Herd Instinct influenced the buying of later editions. That same Herd Instinct has led to buy into some assets despite price gauging and transaction manipulation by Bots. A combination of herd instinct and Bandwagon Effect has resulted in the hobby being dominated by Contango and Backwardation in which the 1st edition of 1st appearances have been ignored. What is stranger is that Later printings have over taken the preference to 1st appearances of Secret identities. Black Swan Events include: the Pandemic Bump and Sales of Heritage and ComicLink. 1st solo series of a character seem to important now.
References Used: API Data from the following sources: Terrapeak Research, Gocollect, Heritage Auctions, Comic Link, Marvel Fandom, DC Fandom, Wookiepedia.
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